President Barack Obama can see “glimmers of hope” on the horizon, despite the country battling its deepest depression in decades, and his own claim that most presidents don’t have to deal with as much as him even in a whole lifetime.

Risk analysis and market expert Satyajit Das says such expressions of hope are not based on any change in productivity, markets or in available credit, and are therefore delusional.

“The banking system is now running, after all the losses and even after the recapitalisation, with a shortfall of between $1 and $2.5 trillion of capital. That translates into a reduction in the amount of credit available to the global system of somewhere between 20 to 30 per cent.”

That means 20 to 30 percent less money available to spend on projects, eg, construction, farming, mining, manufacture, which actually produce useful things, and employ people in useful actitives.

So don’t start celebrating yet.