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Georgina Downer and the Mayo By-Election

July 24, 2018 / / 0 Comments

The current by-election in Mayo has been made necesary because Rebekha Sharkie was not entitled to stand or be elected because she was a citizen of another country at the time of her election.

That is not just my opinion! That is what the Court found, and that is why another expensive election is necessary.

One of the things that has frustrated me is that some of those who have expressed their intention to vote for Rebekha have had the unmitigated hypocrisy to describe Georgina Downer as a “ring-in.” Georgina, whose family has lived in, worked in, and been part of this electorate for over 100 years. Who grew up here, went to school here, worked here, got married here, had her early family life here.

Apparently going interstate and overseas to broaden her education and work experience means, according to some, that she doesn’t belong here. What rubbish.

Georgina gained degrees in Law and Commerce in Melbourne and a Masters Degree from the London School of Economics. She has worked as a solicitor and consultant, was a director of the Indigenous arts project The Torch, was a researcher for US Senator Chuck Hagel and for Baroness Howe of Idlicote in the House of Lords in the UK, represented Australia as a diplomat with the Australian Embassy in Japan, and has been a research fellow at the IPA, Australia’s leading free market, small government, evidence-based policy research and lobby group. And on top of all that has raised two young children, Henry and Margot.

Georgina Downer and Family at Home in the Mayo Electorate

Georgina Downer and Family at Home in the Mayo Electorate

With a long-standing background in Mayo, and this breadth of education and experience, it is difficult to imagine anyone more qualified both to represent Mayo, and to make a strong and positive contribution to our national government.

This is not a local Council election. An interest in, history in, and commitment to the local community is important, and Georgina has all those things in spades. We are electing someone to form part of the Federal Government. We need to elect someone with the skills, energy, intelligence and experience to help Australia grow strong and prosperous into the future.

We have a choice between a lolly-lady and a future Prime Minister.

Qld Election

March 24, 2012 / / 0 Comments

Campbell Newman will win Ashgrove, and the Liberal National Party will win the election so comfortably they won’t even notice it going down.

As they should. Like the federal Labor Party, Anna Bligh has nothing but failure to offer in terms of policy and outcomes.

She seems to have believed that a few nasty allegations about Campbell Newman, made on the basis of no evidence whatever, would distract voters and incline them to vote for her. She could only have been assuming that Queensland voters are much like her. She has seriously misunderestimated the people of Queensland.

Campbell Newman will be a good premier. He is compassionate, speaks well, has years of administrative experience, and understands how wealth is generated.

He is not a social conservative. But for now, I am happy to settle for a fiscal conservative who is also a good leader and an honest man.

As for tonight’s results, the outcome will be roughly 69 for the LNP, 14 for Labor, 4 for Bob Katter’s Australian Party, and two independents.

I notice that Laurie Oakes has written an article about Labor’s collapse in Queensland without suggesting it is all Tony Abbott’s fault. He even draws parallels between Bligh’s prevarications and Gillard’s. Well done Laurie!

6.00pm in Queensland. Exit polls are suggesting an even bigger swing against Labor than the 10% I figured in my predictions. It is possible Labor could win less than ten seats. That would be an unprecedented humiliation for a major Australian party, and a kick in the head for the federal Labor Party and the Prime Minister.

7.15pm in Qld. This is not just a landslide, it’s a meltdown. Congratulations Campbell Newman and the LNP. Rudd has been in the limelight in Qld over the last few days. Without his campaigning things might have been even worse for Labor. Julia Gillard must be worried now.

7.45pm. The ABC is now predicting 75 seats for the LNP and 10 for Labor. Ouch! The key ALP seats of Nudgee, Logan and Ipswich look almost certain to go the LNP. Anna Bligh looks likely to hang on (just – with Greens preferences) in South Brisbane. Overall a slight fall in votes for the Greens. Interesting.

8.15pm. The ABC now predicting 77 for the LNP, 8 for Labor. Even Stretton, held with a 9.5% margin, will fall to the LNP. Woodridge, held by the ALP with a 24% margin, had a swing to the LNP of over 20%. Overall, the swing against Labor is holding steady at just under 16%. Deputy Premier and Treasurer Andrew Fraser is gone. Hard to feel sad about that.

9pm. Rob Katter has taken Mt Isa from the ALP. A mighty win for Bob Katter’s son in what has long been a Labor stronghold. The LNP might even win Mackay, depending on the strength of Katter preferences. Unthinkable until tonight. It looks like the LNP’s Anne Maddern has taken Maryborough from independent Chris Foley. Mixed feelings about that one – Chris is a decent bloke and has worked hard for Maryborough. It looks like Rob Messenger in Burnett made a bad choice when he resigned from the National Party to stand as an independent. Burnett will go the LNP on Katter preferences. The ABC now predicting 78 to 7, with 4 to Katter and the independents. The Greens still slightly down overall. No seats for them. Bob will be disappointed.

9.45pm. It’s all over. The worst defeat for a governing party in Australia’s history. The ABC is still predicting 78 to 7. Labor’s 7 includes Bulimba, which I think is too close to call and may yet go to the LNP’s Aaron Dillaway, who is ahead 3% on primary votes, and Mackay, which as mentioned above, may still go to the LNP on Katter preferences. The end result could easily be 79 to 6, with two for Katter and two independents. (A later note – I was wrong about this. The ABC’s prediction is for Labor to win one of Bulimba or Mackay, not both, so the end figure probably will be 78 to 7). I was way off with 69 to 14. But I don’t think anyone realised till tonight just how smelly the Labor brand has become.

Gracious comments from Campbell Newman, thanking Anna Bligh for her service to Queensland:

“Particularly, I think it’s appropriate this evening that we all thank her and acknowledge her inspirational leadership during the 2011 floods and Cyclone Yasi,” he said. “I also want to acknowledge my opponent Kate Jones, for her services to the people of Ashgrove since she has been elected member.”

What Oakeshott and Windsor Should Be Saying Now

August 23, 2011 / / 0 Comments

Andrew Wilkie wouldn’t recognise a pimple on his own nose. But Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor just might. This is what they should be saying:

After the general election I believed the interests of my electorate, and the people of Australia, would best be served by a Labor government.

I was wrong.

This government has been the most inept in Australia’s history. Its major projects and policy announcements have been a series of expensive and embarrassing failures.

Whatever you may think of the carbon and mining taxes as policy, the government has no mandate for them, and in the case of the carbon tax, can only introduce it by breaking a clear pre-election promise.

The government’s reluctance to act over allegations involving the member for Dobell have made it clear that the leadership of the Labor Party is more concerned with holding onto power than with justice, or the rights of ordinary Australian workers.

Anthony Albanese’s description of hundreds of truck drivers and their families and supporters as ‘the convoy of no consequence,’ demonstrated the contempt the Labor Party feels for the concerns and aspirations of Australian families and small business owners.

A government can only function fairly and effectively if it governs with the consent of the people. The Labor Party has lost the right to claim that consent.

As a result, I have to announce that I intend to support the Leader of the Opposition in a motion of no confidence in the government.

Not only would Oakeshott and Windsor be doing the right thing, and earning the gratitude of the entire country, this is the only conceivable way their own political careers have any chance of continuing past the next election.

Maybe…

September 6, 2010 / / 0 Comments

Tomorrow, Tuesday, we will hear that Tony Abbott is to become the next Prime Minster.

Earlier today we heard that the three independents had sought a commitment from WA Nationals MP Tony Crook that he would not block supply or support Labor in a no confidence motion, should the Coalition form government.

It seemed to me unlikely they would seek such an assurance if they had already formed the view that they would support Labor. They would have no need to do so.

If the three supported Labor, it would not matter what Tony Crook did.

With the independents on side, Julia Gillard would not need to be concerned about Tony Crook. His vote could only threaten the stability of the government if the Coalition were in power.

So the fact they sought this assurance from Tony Crook almost certainly means that they intend to support the Coalition if the assurance is given. Of course, they may just be playing games, which, given their behaviour over the last week, is not impossible.

Tonight brings news that Crook has given that commitment. He will not block supply under a Coalition government, and will not support any no confidence motions against a Coalition government.

Tony for PM!

That means that we will end up with exactly the numbers I predicted the day before the  election – Coalition 76, Labor 74.

Or I could be very embarrassed tomorrow!

Tony Needs To Toughen Up

September 2, 2010 / / 0 Comments

Brandt has signed up with Labor after Bob Brown was promised a carbon tax. Wilkie has signed up with Labor after he was promised a renovated hospital in Hobart.

Tony Abbott now needs to be absolutely clear about three things.

Firstly, the Liberal party will not be buying votes. It will not be making infrastructure or funding promises to independents or anyone else, if those promises come at the expense of other Australians.

Mr Abbott needs to make it clear that funds will allocated in line with policy and need. There will be no sweetheart deals. He will not be pressured into making unreasonable promises to a few, which the many will have to pay for.

Secondly, there can be no unconditional promise to remain in government for the full three years. Such a promise would be unreasonable at any time. It is completely unreasonable at this time.

The Greens and their Labor buddies will control the Senate. It is almost certain they will use that power to block supply or stop or delay crucial legislation. If the Liberal party is able to form government, it will only govern with the consent of the Greens and Labor.

That is not a situation in which a party and its leaders can responsibly promise to stay in government for a fixed term.

Finally, Tony Abbott and the Liberals must now emphasise, over and over again, the fiscal responsibility of the Coalition, the consistently better economic results under a Coalition government.

The Liberals may still lose this election, and if they do, the country will find itself suffocating under a staggering level of economic incompetence.

The next few years will be dire for small business, for the mining and manufacturing sectors, for rural and remote communities – for everyone who actually produces useful, valuable goods and services.

I hope Tony Abbott can still win. That would save us from the worst of the combined malice and ineptitude of a Greens/Labor alliance.

But if not Tony, then at least lose with honour.

Election Musings

August 24, 2010 / / 1 Comment

The Australian Electoral Commission has declared Brisbane for the Liberals.

That leaves only Hasluck and Corangamite in doubt. Both still too close to call. But in Hasluck, Family First, Christian Democratic Party and Climate Sceptic preferences will all go strongly to the Liberals. That, along with the fact that postal and absentee votes tend to favour the Liberals, should be enough to get them over the line.

I said on Saturday night that the Liberals would probably need Corangamite to win.

Sally-Anne Brown’s preferences will go almost entirely to Labor. Family First’s mostly to the Liberals. As the votes presently stand, Greens’ preferences would need to run almost two to one Labor to Liberal for Labor to retain the seat. And they are running almost two to one. The only hope for the Liberals here is for Sarah Henderson to come in very strongly in the last 15% of the vote. But there are only about 600 votes separating the Labor and Liberal, so this is entirely possible.

If Hasluck and Corangamite come to the Liberals, and though Sarah is behind I think this is the likely result, final numbers will be, Labor 71, Liberal 74, 1 Green, 4 independents.

If the Liberals win Corangamite, Labor will not be able to form government, even with the Green and three of the independents. The Liberals will only need two of the independents, and will get them.

If Labor wins Corangamite, final numbers will be Labor 72, Liberal 73, 1 Green, 4 independents.

For Labor to form government they would need the Green and three independents – that is, all of the independents except Bob Katter, who, even though he has no love for the Nationals, will not co-operate in returning a manifestly inept Labor government.

Oakeshott seems to me a compete dimwit. Anyone is who hopes for a cabinet lead by Julia Gillard and starring Malcolm Turnbull.

So it may come down to Tony Windsor. But he doens’t want nuclear power, and thinks the NBN is a great idea. So not much brain power there either.

If Labor wins Corangamite, they may be able to form a very untidy government.

If Oakshott and Windsor have any integrity in relation to the trust placed in them by their electorates, they will support Tony Abbott, and help him to form a government which will put an end to the astonishing waste and incompetence of the last few years.

If they don’t, they are both likely never to be elected again, and justly – they will have betrayed the people who voted for them.

So… 65% chance the Liberals will win Corangamite. If so, they will be the next government.

If Labor wins Corangamite, it depends on the integrity of two of the independents, and their fear of not being re-elected if they do the wrong thing.

I am hopeful.

PS

I got a very polite email this afternoon from Corangamite independent candidate Sally-Anne Brown:

I was interested to read on your website in the article ‘election musings’ that my preferences would go almost entirely to the ALP in the seat of Corangamite.
 
I am writing to advise you – in case you were under the impression I did a direct preference to the ALP in Saturday’s election – that in fact I did not preference one major party ahead of the other – leaving this for voters to decide ie: I did a ‘split ticket’.

I hadn’t suggested that she had made a preference deal, or directed her preferences to one party over another. Rather, given her policy views, it seemed likely that those who gave their primary vote to her would be much more likely to feel an affinity to Labor than Liberal.

Sally-Anne issued a press release the day before the election explaining her position.

Just Back

August 21, 2010 / / 0 Comments

… from two hours of handing out how to vote cards in Kingscote (Mayo, SA).

Two things of interest.

1. Someone who thought I was offering her a Labor card said ‘Not without Kevin.’

I wasn’t sure the knifing of Kevin Rudd really would make a difference to the election. It has.

2. The number of people who specifically asked for Family First cards.

I know the candidate for Family First in Mayo. He is a great guy. Honest, intelligent, compassionate, hard working.

He won’t get in.

But the fact that so many people asked for Family First cards makes me wonder whether Bob Day has a chance of taking Sarah Hanson-Young’s senate seat.

That would certainly be a cause for rejoicing in my household.

Finally, the following from the Sydney Morning Herald:

Labor has denied employing dirty campaign tactics in the marginal electorate of Lindsay where candidate David Bradbury is at risk of losing his seat.

Labor campaigners are distributing how to vote cards dressed as Liberals, wearing recplica T-shirts to booth workers campaigning for Liberal candidate Fiona Scott.

The light blue T-shirts are unmarked with Labor branding and are precisely the same shade as their liberal counterpart.

A Labor campaign leaftlet is also styled to look like Greens election material. It is authorised by the ALP but contains no party logo.

Why would anyone vote for these people?

Inevitable Election Prediction

August 21, 2010 / / 2 Comments

All right, so I may be embarrassed tomorrow, but here goes.

In primary votes, the Liberals are way ahead. But with preference deals counted, most polls show them at 48% and Labor at 52%.

Tim Blair has all the bases covered, but suggests the most likely outcome is a three to eight seat victory for Labor.

If the polls are right, the overall swing may not be enough to give the Liberals a clear victory.

But the polls may not be right.

Julia has shot herself in the foot over the last couple days with her incessant bleating about how rotten Tony Abbott is, and how Work Choices would be back on Monday if the Liberals win. She looks tired, brittle, and untrustworthy.

I suspect the swing will be slightly stronger than the polls suggest.

But the overall swing is less important than the extent of movement in particular marginals.

Labor will lose seats in New South Wales and Queensland. They seem to be hoping to pick up two in South Australia. Julia is an Adelaide girl.

I doubt this will happen. The Rann government is not as popular as it was, and however Julia may try to distance herself from unpopular state governments, Labor is Labor.

The Greens will not win their seat in Melbourne.

The Liberals will win by two seats.

This may make effective government difficult. But Tony Abbott has shown over the last months that he can command loyalty and draw disparate party elements together. He will be a good Prime Minister.

In the Senate? The Greens will not get the vote they hope for. But the pixies in the garden parties may still hold the balance of power.

Incidentally, and in case you were wondering, I am not a member of the Liberal Party. The only political party I have ever belonged to was the Socialist Workers’ Party. That was at university.

My views have changed since then!

Gillard Strident and Negative – ABC News

August 20, 2010 / / 0 Comments

No, Julia Gillard being strident and negative is not news. What is news is that an ABC correspondent says she is.

Even Julia seems to be admitting that she is now running a wholly negative campaign. She has to, you know, because things are tough.

John Styles at Australian Conservative nails the Labor strategy:

  • Lies: simply assert something about your opponent’s policies, or costings, without any basis in fact
  • Fake polling: Release “secret internal polling” in an effort to drive the media agenda
  • “Friday dumps”: Untrue “news” stories dropped into marginal seats on the day before the poll
  • Endless negativity: Claim you’re being positive but all you do is attack your opponent
  • Scare campaigns: Make up things about your opponent and his policies
  • Personal attacks: Relentlessly repeat that your opponent is a “risk”

This may work with some of the people, some of the time (hmm.. that sounds familiar).

But my suspicion is that people have had enough, and this latest bout of ranting about how horrible Tony Abbott is, and he will bring back Work Choices, and reduce the number of doctors, and ruin the environment, and goodness knows what other dreadful things he is planning because you can’t trust a word he says, will backfire.

Julia really does look and sound strident and negative and desperate. Maybe she’s beginning to wonder if people have realised she is the one who can’t be trusted, who is too big a risk.

Know What You’re Voting For

August 20, 2010 / / 1 Comment

A few people I have spoken to over the last couple of weeks, people who are otherwise intelligent as far as I can tell, have told me they intend to vote for the Greens in the Senate.

When asked why, they usually respond by saying they think the Greens will do a better job of protecting the environment.

So I ask if they can tell me about any specific Greens policies.

‘No. Well, they’re in favour of the environment.’

‘OK. How do their specific policies differ from those of the Labor or Liberal parties?’

No answer.

The Greens win votes by making sure people don’t know about their policies. There’s just a general fluffy, let’s be nice to green things and furry things feel about them.

But there is nothing green or pleasantly furry about the Greens.

Just consider two Greens policies, one which will impact on everyone, and one which will impact on a few in real need.

First, the Greens have made it clear that if Labor depends on them, even occasionally, to get legislation through the Senate, the price of their co-operation will be a carbon tax.

A Carbon tax will have no positive effect on the environment.

Human activity has had a miniscule impact on the level of CO2 in the atmosphere – from about 3 particles per 10,000 to about 4 particles per 10,000.  And that is assuming we are to blame for all of that small increase over the last 100 years. But we don’t know. It really is just an assumption. CO2 levels change all the time. They have been much higher in the past, and sometimes lower.

Higher is good. During the Carboniferous period, when most modern trees evolved, temperatures were about the same as they are now. CO2 levels were three times higher than now. At current levels, trees and other green things are Carbon deprived. For plants, surviving at current levels of CO2 is like our surviving on Oxygen depleted air. Less CO2 means less green, not more.

More CO2 means better crops, and more resilience in forests and wetlands.

So a carbon tax is bad for the environment. It is also bad for industry, because it is a tax on energy, which means it is a tax on transport, manufacture, travel, power generation, etc, etc, etc.

Everything will be more expensive, for no point whatever.

This is what voting for the Greens means.

A second Greens policy is the closure of the Lucas Heights reactor.

I have mentioned this to a few people, and the response is always something like: ‘Well that’s OK. Good. We don’t need any nuclear reactors in Australia anyway.’ 

Actually we do. They are a cheap, clean, sustainable form of energy production that will reduce our dependence on coal and imported fuels. But that is not the immediate point.

The Lucas Heights reactor produces the isotopes required for nuclear medicine. Radiotherapy. Diagnosing and treating cancer.

1.5 million doses of nuclear medicine (radiotherapy) are administered in Australia every year.

If the Greens have their way on this, cancer patients in Australia will die because a basic modern form of treatment will not be available to them.

Know what you are voting for.

Labor’s Report Card

August 18, 2010 / / 1 Comment

Based on comments by Engineer and Mick Davis on Andrew Bolt’s blog.

Labor’s Report Card

20/20 Summit – FAIL

Millions of dollars of your money wasted. No ideas from summit implemented.

Aboriginal Housing – FAIL

$300 million of your money spent, no houses built.

Grocery Watch – FAIL

Millions of dollars of your money wasted, no outcome.

Fuel Watch – FAIL

Millions of dollars of your money wasted, no outcome.

Private Health Rebate – FAIL

Core election promise broken, more taxpayers funds wasted.

Federal Takeover of Health Services – FAIL

Core election promise broken, millions in taxpayer funds wasted, no result.

Super Clinics – FAIL

31 promised in 2007, 2 built at $6 million each (twice the estimated cost if built by private practitioners). More of your money wasted.

Mining Tax – FAIL

First ‘back of the envelope’ plan would have sabotaged Australia’s key industries. Gillard’s revision unworkable. Budget figures including income from this tax now short billions of dollars.

‘Free’ Home Insulation – FAIL

$2.5 billion of your money wasted, 4 deaths, 200 house fires, another $1 billion to fix.

Solar Panel Scheme – FAIL

Blow-out of $850 million on untested technology. Scheme scrapped, rebates discontinued, workers unemployed.

Foreign Relations – FAIL

Former positive relationships with Indonesia, East Timor, China, Israel, now confused or strained.

Green Loans – FAIL

Program dumped after $175 million blow-out. No measureable outcomes. Auditors/inspectors unemployed.

Building the Education Revolution – FAIL

$18 billion of your money spent – $1000 from every Australian. No local consultation. Schools that needed gyms got libraries, schools that needed libraries got halls. Wholesale rorting, sub-standard buildings. Up to $8 billion wasted.

School Computers – FAIL

One billion dollars of your money blew out to $2.2 billion. Less than one third of promised computers delivered.

National Broadband Network – FAIL

A $5 billion policy blows out to $43 billion. $6000 cost to every household in Australia, assuming costs do not double – which some experts claim they will. Virtually no services delivered. No advantage over existing cable or HFC technology.

Budget Control – FAIL

$22 billion surplus turned into $58 billion deficit which tax payers will need to repay. Nearly $9000 per year per Australian household.

Debt – FAIL

$40 billion left in the bank by the Liberals turned into $100 billion Labor debt in just three years. Labor’s spending spree continues to increase debt at 100 million dollars per day, rising to 120 million per day next year.

Border Security – FAIL

Illegal arrivals 3 boats a year under Liberals, now approaching 3 boats per week. At least 170 aslylum seeker deaths at sea, plus nearly 300 missing and unaccounted for. Plan for a new detention centre in East Timor not even discussed with East Timorese government before being announced.

Climate Policy – FAIL

‘Great moral issue of our time.’ ‘Delay is denial.’ Action – NIL. No current policy. Hundreds of climate bureaucrats employed by Penny Wong with your money, doing nothing.

Would the Liberals have done any better?

Past action and results are the best predictor of future action and results.

The Liberals were elected in 1996.

Labor had left a debt of $96 billion. This was repaid.

When Labor was kicked out, unemployment was in double digits. Under the Liberals unemployment was reduced to its lowest in 30 years.

When Labor left, inflation was in double digits. Under the Liberals inflation was reduced to 3%.

Under the Liberals, interest rates were reduced to their lowest in 30 years.

The Liberals created the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to ensure bank security and reduce loan defaults, and avoided a US type economic crisis.

The Liberals invested $67 billion into a future fund, and ran consistent surplus budgets leaving Labor a $22 billion dollar surplus when they took over in 2007.

Labor debt – tax payer money borrowed and spent, which tax payers will need to repay – now stands at $100 billion – $5000 for every Australian.

On past experience – Yes. The Liberals will do better.

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